How Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.