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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.