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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd